La Liga · resolved market
Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbde2da55dd420aa0e5e94530d95a4c2eefba37f45fd9c40dc638d9dd0872cece
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,731 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 4,997$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.38 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Over | 79c | 4,995$3,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.99 | 241 | 47.7%115 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed Under | 22c | 3,810$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.19 | 79 | 22.8%18 W · 61 L | -8.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Over | 80c | 3,750$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 2,631$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.86 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 80c | 1,165$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.45 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…cde8backed Under | 28c | 1,005$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c8…a016backed Over | 72c | 1,005$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.26 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…73fbbacked Over | 80c | 699.49$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.9 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 19c | 593.62$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.27 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Under | 24c | 566.25$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.21 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 64 | 78.1%50 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 21c | 397.01$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 170 | 32.9%56 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 20c | 360.34$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898c…d848backed Over | 73c | 343.78$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…8e9cbacked Under | 27c | 343.78$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…1846backed Over | 80c | 312.5$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over | 79c | 310$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 79c | 255.76$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 424 | 58%246 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa10b…9885backed Under | 21c | 255.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…8f5fbacked Over | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,038 | 48.1%499 W · 539 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 22c | 209.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 73c | 129.58$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 342 | 52%178 W · 164 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f37…8907backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 21c | 120.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 22c | 119.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 22c | 106.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 335 | 44.2%148 W · 187 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 80c | 103.74$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb224…fedbbacked Over | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 21c | 99.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…d370backed Under | 22c | 97.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…c65dbacked Over | 80c | 91.56$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…d232backed Over | 80c | 79.73$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Under | 21c | 78.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 79c | 75.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 288 | 47.6%137 W · 151 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd71…6714backed Over | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 78c | 73.69$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 247 | 57.5%142 W · 105 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Under | 21c | 64.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb4…68c3backed Over | 78c | 63.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…1c01backed Over | 79c | 62.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…7857backed Under | 20c | 57.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1b…94b2backed Over | 77c | 54.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 41 | 75.6%31 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d13…b939backed Over | 78c | 53.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 53 | 71.7%38 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Over | 80c | 48.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 40 | 82.5%33 W · 7 L | +6.5wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Over | 79c | 44.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…cf1fbacked Over | 80c | 40.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…5dcebacked Over | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d0d5backed Over | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e6…6fd5backed Over | 79c | 35.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e9…736dbacked Over | 80c | 26.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531c…678cbacked Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f6…fcd2backed Over | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 42 | 83.3%35 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f6…4288backed Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 25 | 92%23 W · 2 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 71cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 223 | 66.8%149 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e86…c770backed Over | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d6…f94abacked Over | 79c | 21.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 79c | 19.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…6564backed Over | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6da…b2cdbacked Over | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Over | 79c | 12.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.67 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…cbe8backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…c36ebacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2aa…2c12backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.