La Liga · resolved market
Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13e91c6368dbb50276afa81b2afe3846fa85e93db0b7cde380cb8a76fa30498c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Real Sociedad de Fútbolof Villarreal CF, Real Sociedad de Fútbol
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,946 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Villarreal CF | 14c | 5,381$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.6 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 78c | 413.33$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.71 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Villarreal CF | 19c | 363$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.97 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Villarreal CF | 55c | 239$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.37 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 63c | 206$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 421 | 58%244 W · 177 L | +29.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Villarreal CF | 25c | 115.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Villarreal CF | 11c | 108.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Villarreal CF | 35c | 103$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Villarreal CF | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 38c | 78.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Villarreal CF | 26c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 839 | 39.8%334 W · 505 L | -21.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 35c | 55.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 41c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 458 | 41%188 W · 270 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Villarreal CF | 51c | 41.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -9.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66dc…5456backed Villarreal CF | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)Villarreal CF won
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.