La Liga · resolved market
Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ac796a18a24a98970f301424447d62ba74a2db6e7ddc38b7f105106f2808bbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9df…2d62backed Under | 46c | 9,845$4,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,275.73 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f09…9312backed Over | 56c | 4,531$2,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,525 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Over | 53c | 3,245$1,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,735.85 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa566…72debacked Over | 49c | 2,838$1,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,385.26 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 2,318$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.94 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 2,310$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155 | 200 | 54%108 W · 92 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dca…87d0backed Over | 29c | 1,900$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 1,387$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.03 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 18c | 1,318$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.24 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed Over | 77c | 1,300$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3f…5a9fbacked Over | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…d6a2backed Over | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…2c43backed Over | 47c | 885.99$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 608 | 32.4%197 W · 411 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 26c | 763.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 17c | 724.65$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.9 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed Under | 54c | 579.75$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.75 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…cf07backed Over | 53c | 576$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.28 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Under | 41c | 536.59$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.59 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…92ddbacked Under | 7c | 501.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 5cpaid | +283.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 54c | 459.5$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.13 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94c…ba65backed Under | 10c | 444.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.41 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1782…892fbacked Under | 28c | 411.71$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.47 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Over | 80c | 375$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -8.1wins | -0.16per pick | 68cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 19c | 349.68$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…8745backed Over | 61c | 349.62$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 50c | 280$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.91 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 74c | 265.56$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.63 | 283 | 57.2%162 W · 121 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 55c | 254.69$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.69 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d54…6c91backed Under | 44c | 250.74$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.74 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 17c | 206.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…30a0backed Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +14.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…68f1backed Under | 44c | 193.87$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.87 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 65c | 185.34$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.47 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Over | 60c | 162.51$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.45 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 66c | 135.85$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…dba8backed Over | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 49c | 126.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Under | 14c | 120$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.8 | 96 | 11.5%11 W · 85 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…33d8backed Over | 44c | 116.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7f3cbacked Over | 28c | 109.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7569…ac76backed Under | 33c | 102.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.62 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Over | 56c | 101.79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 75c | 101.33$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Under | 11c | 93.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.02 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Under | 47c | 86.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69ac…03e9backed Under | 69c | 85.16$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 74c | 81.36$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 335 | 44.2%148 W · 187 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Over | 23c | 80.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…3bd4backed Under | 50c | 74.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 59c | 66.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 839 | 39.8%334 W · 505 L | -21.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 46c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 458 | 41%188 W · 270 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 74c | 63.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 16c | 63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa396…0019backed Over | 32c | 61.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb4…68c3backed Over | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Over | 60c | 56.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 80 | 75%60 W · 20 L | +13.9wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…434dbacked Over | 56c | 53.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27d3…0764backed Over | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Under | 45c | 49.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 64c | 46.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 153 | 44.4%68 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Over | 63c | 41.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Under | 37c | 41.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…8617backed Over | 29c | 40.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 73c | 37.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 203 | 60.1%122 W · 81 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7583…0469backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…3c70backed Over | 63c | 29.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01b3…52debacked Under | 58c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 44c | 24.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Over | 48c | 24.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Over | 54c | 21.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 60c | 20.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Over | 58c | 19.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.