La Liga · resolved market
Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x518d91d3a95ab5b78dd334d8defc4a1c0f22a942d7ec9ad710f7e1e91800a2cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Villarreal CFof Villarreal CF, Real Sociedad de Fútbol
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,477 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc1be…d6a2backed Villarreal CF | 72c | 1,382$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.38 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Villarreal CF | 26c | 1,134$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.68 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Villarreal CF | 33c | 1,100$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.57 | 490 | 57.1%280 W · 210 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 73c | 984$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.32 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 74c | 782.14$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.19 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Villarreal CF | 74c | 774.09$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.99 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 75c | 611.13$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.19 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked Villarreal CF | 27c | 555.52$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.53 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Villarreal CF | 4c | 315.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.52 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +202.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 73c | 300$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 428 | 51.4%220 W · 208 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Villarreal CF | 69c | 284.26$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.85 | 1,419 | 45.6%647 W · 772 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 35c | 283.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 28c | 226$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…0657backed Villarreal CF | 27c | 222.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +185.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Villarreal CF | 45c | 145.76$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.89 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 74c | 117.38$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.86 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Villarreal CF | 52c | 93.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.21 | 458 | 41%188 W · 270 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cec…a0abbacked Villarreal CF | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 73c | 87.42$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 21c | 78.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 413 | 23.2%96 W · 317 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 335 | 44.2%148 W · 187 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Villarreal CF | 26c | 64.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 1,038 | 48.1%499 W · 539 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 16c | 63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked Villarreal CF | 39c | 51.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 24c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 74c | 28.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 75c | 20.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…3bbdbacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 75c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x955f…2e25backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.