Premier League · resolved market
Manchester City FC leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0ca2d21b31f9c2115c11e7e6b39098dc28da2156302ad1130c1f1bba0e37137
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc952…1d90backed Yes | 48c | 6,142$2,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,197.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda6…84c5backed No | 52c | 4,724$2,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,456.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 45c | 2,248$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.61 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 58c | 1,733$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.56 | 532 | 40%213 W · 319 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 45c | 1,407$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.01 | 1,615 | 34.9%564 W · 1,051 L | -28.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 50c | 1,307$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.51 | 964 | 45.4%438 W · 526 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Yes | 58c | 850$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.5 | 144 | 63.9%92 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Yes | 53c | 729.34$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.61 | 103 | 35%36 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 47c | 684.37$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.34 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 41c | 603.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.94 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 60c | 517.57$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.52 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 41c | 359$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.73 | 1,589 | 53.3%847 W · 742 L | +39.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0319…2f43backed Yes | 51c | 313.29$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.3 | 150 | 30.7%46 W · 104 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 42c | 297$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 1,208 | 42.2%510 W · 698 L | -27.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 42c | 296.41$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.87 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Yes | 58c | 282.12$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.49 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf479…0fe3backed Yes | 59c | 192.37$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 41c | 192.14$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.78 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 38c | 177.12$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 200 | 41%82 W · 118 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 57c | 175.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.55 | 353 | 47.6%168 W · 185 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed Yes | 54c | 111.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dd…345cbacked Yes | 57c | 101.75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 40c | 77.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 220 | 40.5%89 W · 131 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9f…b0d4backed Yes | 59c | 72.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 54c | 69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 419 | 56.3%236 W · 183 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 35c | 64.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 412 | 43.4%179 W · 233 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63aa…8b6fbacked Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.37per pick | 60cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed No | 47c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | +21.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 47c | 50.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 206 | 51.9%107 W · 99 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc83…215cbacked Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 23c | 43.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 117 | 12%14 W · 103 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Yes | 58c | 41.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed No | 47c | 41.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…0774backed Yes | 63c | 37.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…fdbebacked Yes | 58c | 36.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed No | 46c | 34.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5362…d242backed Yes | 56c | 32.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 42c | 29.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed No | 44c | 27.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +18.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1c…7573backed Yes | 58c | 24.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ac…e7d7backed Yes | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 58c | 22.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d5…7e29backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93dd…2f33backed No | 56c | 19.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…2920backed Yes | 58c | 19.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC leading at halftime?this page
- Crystal Palace FC leading at halftime?No won
- Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Draw at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.