Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0dc49b025fcf1a240850bf6c7fe1cda5b9b57985722258e8429c424d5969ba3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 3,333$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,813.55 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 15c | 532.58$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.02 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 67c | 330.69$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.25 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 68c | 320$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.5 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 34c | 294.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.84 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 11c | 284.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…f22cbacked No | 74c | 261.95$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 229.37$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.26 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 222.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.6 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 80c | 217.34$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 213.8$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked Yes | 78c | 205.53$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 78c | 200.78$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.53 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 67c | 199$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 46c | 185.47$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.61 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 133.02$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 33c | 120.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.48 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 22c | 111.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.48 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed No | 14c | 110.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 63c | 107.23$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ce…3c70backed No | 22c | 106.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 55c | 105.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.42 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 16c | 99.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.47 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 23c | 91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…f54abacked Yes | 22c | 88.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 21c | 76.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 58c | 73.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 58c | 71.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 28c | 70.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 20c | 66.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 24c | 64.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 80c | 63.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 59.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 44c | 59.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 57.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 54.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 78c | 51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 23c | 46.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 43.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 34c | 35.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 29c | 35.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 61c | 35.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 78c | 33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 62c | 31.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 79c | 26.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x138a…8197backed Yes | 79c | 25.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.