Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8feca14e137effc35a4f0fca81ca541c5bd6a269157d501465f3f92d7b828371
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 44c | 1,000$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.05 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 44c | 828.73$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…f22cbacked No | 42c | 719.74$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.74 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 575.08$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.45 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 574.51$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.48 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked Yes | 57c | 375$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.5 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 37c | 350$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.99 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 49c | 299.52$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.66 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 20c | 270.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf2…172dbacked No | 56c | 242$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 76c | 230.4$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 18c | 230.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 226.83$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.89 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 37c | 200$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.42 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 171.79$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.92 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 20c | 170$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 26c | 165.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5184…1363backed Yes | 61c | 164.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 55c | 160$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 157.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 155.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 38c | 141$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 140.43$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7c10backed Yes | 23c | 130$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 42c | 128$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 125.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 41c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.32 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 18c | 108.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 43c | 106.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 35c | 102.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 102.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 102.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 100.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…f54abacked Yes | 60c | 98.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 93.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 64c | 90.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 47c | 88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 65c | 83.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 43c | 82.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 79.35$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 75.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 56c | 75.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed No | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 69.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 36c | 68.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 46c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 52c | 64.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 55c | 62.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 48c | 62.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 55c | 62.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 23c | 59.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 46c | 52.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 52.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0aa…3259backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 48.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 37c | 47.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 51c | 44.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 44c | 44.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 55c | 43.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 49c | 41.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 33c | 41.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 44c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 43c | 39.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked No | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 68c | 35.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed No | 56c | 35.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 57c | 35.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 35c | 35.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 53c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 44c | 34.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 53c | 33.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 54c | 33.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7973…8ed9backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 49c | 31.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 52c | 30.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 55c | 29.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed Yes | 44c | 28.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 57c | 28.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 54c | 27.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 41c | 26.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 50c | 25.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 45c | 25.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.