Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x202f06f46b296c8a94b6072ee58d11715dc0510e90eeda71c4f753d02d32b481
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,155
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,155 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 1,461$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 33c | 902.93$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 585.66$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.82 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 551.01$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.39 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 43c | 462.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 442.46$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.59 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 270.83$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 5c | 270.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 263$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.42 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 220$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 211.66$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.26 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 23c | 199.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 191.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 16c | 190$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6a…56a8backed Yes | 19c | 185.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 26c | 166.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 49c | 159.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed No | 53c | 155$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 40c | 138.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 128.21$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 77c | 126.14$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 121.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 46c | 108.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 47c | 106.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked Yes | 15c | 102.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…9c59backed Yes | 31c | 96.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 71c | 91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 40c | 90.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 39c | 85.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 82.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed Yes | 24c | 82.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 77.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 68.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 47c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 31c | 62.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 78c | 61.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 50c | 61.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 28c | 59.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 50c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 37c | 47.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 47.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 41c | 46.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 49c | 46.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 43.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 42.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 40.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 43c | 38.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 53c | 37.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 41c | 37.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae09…60fbbacked Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x654e…e052backed No | 51c | 32.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 35c | 30.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 56c | 26.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…1d98backed No | 50c | 25.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…52abbacked No | 55c | 23.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 69c | 23.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 22.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 67c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf2…172dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 66c | 19.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.