Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1e895af37f645e0e8e3c5b7b639c168270818d8c584768cbd8aa79f4e967f00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 2,618$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 515.92$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 26c | 400$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.18 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 24c | 360.36$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 75c | 296.27$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.66 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 72c | 186.58$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 176.9$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 169.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 21c | 164$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 74c | 145$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 28c | 139$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 136.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…5123backed Yes | 23c | 117.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 74c | 97.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 77c | 95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 89.61$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c28…8dadbacked Yes | 29c | 81.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 79c | 79.68$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 26c | 73.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 28c | 73.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 29c | 69.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 69.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 80c | 67.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 59.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 57.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 54.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 28c | 52.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 74c | 49.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 28.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 28.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 74c | 27.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…1fe2backed No | 75c | 13.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.