Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x394a122436e8756552870ae0c285a1086cc0be8a484067367e0a2c94987d70b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 602.45$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 569.7$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 24c | 507.24$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.93 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 484.19$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.49 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 303.51$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 71c | 293.03$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.88 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 45c | 235.12$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.38 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 193.94$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.32 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 74c | 171.1$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.8 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 24c | 171$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.82 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 24c | 166.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.37 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 154.65$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 43c | 135.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bb68backed Yes | 75c | 132.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 14c | 128.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 45c | 125.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 116.44$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.94 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 99.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.01 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…f596backed Yes | 51c | 98.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 21c | 96.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.62 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 89.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 22c | 81.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 30c | 74.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 34c | 65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 76c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 74c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 79c | 57.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 31c | 52.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 50.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 62c | 45.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…7455backed Yes | 56c | 45.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 28c | 39.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 74c | 38.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 35.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 32c | 34.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 36c | 32.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 42c | 30.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked No | 77c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 66c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe30d…2aafbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.