Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa234475788971a5a67b2c1cccb42dea0e9dcca0b62b82498330c3a82bbbb0586
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4581…91f9backed Yes | 4c | 1,130$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 42c | 700$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.37 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 273.3$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 36c | 269.81$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 261.04$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 246$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 57c | 234.2$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.71 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 177.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 23c | 146.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 141.15$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 63c | 135.66$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 78c | 128.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 57c | 121.06$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 114.86$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 29c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 18c | 97.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 89.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 35c | 87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 37c | 83.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 61c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 62c | 78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 28c | 76.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 64c | 74.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 62c | 67.82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 38c | 58.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 76c | 55.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 25c | 54.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f56…584dbacked Yes | 26c | 53.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 52.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab99…fb61backed Yes | 45c | 52.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 49.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 28c | 47.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 42c | 47.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 61c | 44.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 36c | 43.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 70c | 35.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 41c | 34.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 63c | 34.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 33.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 63c | 32.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…7fbdbacked Yes | 39c | 30.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 63c | 29.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 27.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 40c | 27.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 60c | 26.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 65c | 25.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 65c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37a1…6691backed No | 60c | 24.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 56c | 23.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 63c | 21.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 20.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 64c | 20.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 18.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 72c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.