Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d11f6a34b073f0232cff716ab9ebf00d63315fbc723f597bbd504ce128ce840
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed No | 51c | 1,007$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.81 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 41c | 510.06$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.48 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 80c | 452.54$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.72 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 381.75$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 378.31$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 49c | 368$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.32 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 350$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 56c | 234.22$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.48 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 30c | 203.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 46c | 154.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 49c | 135$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 55c | 131.39$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 57c | 123.64$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 118.43$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 104.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 102.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 98.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 57c | 94.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 59c | 90.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 43c | 89.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 60c | 87.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 74.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 72.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed No | 62c | 67.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 55c | 66.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 47c | 65.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 65.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 61c | 63.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 63.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 50c | 58.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 56.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 58c | 44.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 42.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 52c | 41.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…1666backed No | 62c | 39.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 42c | 37.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 37.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 49c | 37.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 49c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 43c | 33.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 43c | 33.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 55c | 32.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 55c | 32.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked Yes | 45c | 31.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 65c | 29.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 70c | 26.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fff…7abfbacked Yes | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 58c | 22.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 58c | 21.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…1316backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…a1f1backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 19.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed No | 58c | 18.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…8cf8backed No | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.