South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Guadalajara vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2353e385eba32fde9f3bcae305a42fdd68d93a28fc38eb5d73a644feded19f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 19c | 4,851$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.14 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 3,976$2,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.98 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 18c | 3,219$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.27 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,396$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.77 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 71c | 1,195$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.71 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Yes | 33c | 1,160$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.2 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 77c | 777.38$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.22 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 44c | 528$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.32 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…f14dbacked Yes | 3c | 400.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 26c | 388.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63d8…ceb0backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 26c | 340$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.42 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 36c | 278.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked No | 65c | 247.09$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.54 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 22c | 219.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 27c | 204$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 12c | 179.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 211 | 32.7%69 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 68c | 169.25$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 27c | 152$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 213 | 49.8%106 W · 107 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed No | 79c | 146$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 212 | 52.4%111 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 27c | 142.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…4f53backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ad…cbf7backed Yes | 21c | 123.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Yes | 12c | 119$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 80c | 119$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 76c | 114$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0990…f36fbacked Yes | 22c | 112.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed No | 74c | 108$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 73c | 103$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 73c | 81.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 27c | 79.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1e…f21ebacked No | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 27c | 60.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked No | 69c | 52.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 192 | 64.1%123 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 50.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 134 | 51.5%69 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 47.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b6…a5f3backed Yes | 37c | 46.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 74c | 43.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 72c | 39.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbae…b263backed Yes | 35c | 37.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Yes | 30c | 36.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 183 | 59%108 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 70c | 35.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…13eebacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a84…4406backed No | 70c | 30.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 68c | 24.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 70c | 22.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…ac63backed No | 68c | 20.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 74c | 19.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 76c | 19.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa718…baf1backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Guadalajara vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw?this page
- Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-05-16?No won
- Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.