Fifa International · resolved market
Will Haiti be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2a83621e4b3fdb44ac7fb64fd68879d15370f81176f2b99fc4370f277e622bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5146…ac5ebacked No | 2c | 633.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb0…766abacked Yes | 14c | 232.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.41 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 18c | 117$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.14 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 80c | 93$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa853…58a9backed Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 79c | 55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 235 | 43%101 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 78c | 44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 464 | 64.9%301 W · 163 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 79c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 37.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 199 | 29.1%58 W · 141 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…bed6backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Haiti be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup?this page
- Will Curaçao be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup?No won
- Will Panama be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.