MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2b216c69da26ea4c7924c1cae4bf6b34d8b596005a6fd3df3f445aff42d895c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 65c | 4,317$2,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,511.06 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 36c | 3,790$1,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.86 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Over | 2c | 1,827$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 65c | 1,618$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.26 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 35c | 1,577$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.66 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 1,093$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.76 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 54c | 749.78$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.15 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Over | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 119 | 14.3%17 W · 102 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +289.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Over | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 40c | 333.5$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.36 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 260.96$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.22 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 54c | 256$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.29 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 37c | 249.97$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.07 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 46c | 203.26$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.82 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 23c | 168.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.83 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 77c | 107.35$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.66 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over | 45c | 89.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 70c | 88.74$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 57c | 84.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 33c | 76.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 50c | 66.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 46c | 58.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 77c | 56.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Over | 43c | 51.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Under | 52c | 49.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 43c | 47.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Under | 55c | 46.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Under | 70c | 40.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 48c | 36.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 48c | 26.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Over | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 75c | 21.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 57c | 19.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 69c | 19.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 69c | 19.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…5300backed Under | 63c | 16.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.