MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43a5eefef553c36169d126fcc1ac992fa82c6fcc67209caebc5a60d81e038d03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 31c | 5,025$1,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,545.56 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 28c | 4,637$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,332.78 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 1,970$1,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.44 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 593.99$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.71 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Washington Nationals | 29c | 266.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.33 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 193.91$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.35 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 184.09$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Washington Nationals | 36c | 178.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 16c | 169$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.12 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Washington Nationals | 73c | 125.19$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 752 | 44%331 W · 421 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals | 30c | 115.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 106.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Washington Nationals | 30c | 98.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 94.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 82.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 69.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Washington Nationals | 30c | 69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Washington Nationals | 30c | 61.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Washington Nationals | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 45.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Washington Nationals | 30c | 42.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Washington Nationals | 30c | 42.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Washington Nationals | 75c | 41.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Washington Nationals | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 34.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 44c | 34.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 28.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 1,013 | 50.3%510 W · 503 L | +51.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…1d74backed Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 27.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 27.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 18.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b55dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 29 | 86.2%25 W · 4 L | +8.3wins | +0.29per pick | 58cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.