MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb62397bef1c14874ccee836e53555c85b712656626709827a03c18f794924b13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 51c | 8,549$4,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,189.11 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 50c | 5,370$2,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,667.07 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ab…97b6backed Under | 50c | 2,159$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.65 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over | 45c | 1,898$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.13 | 149 | 24.2%36 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 49c | 1,633$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.17 | 1,924 | 53.4%1,028 W · 896 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 55c | 1,538$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.16 | 1,970 | 53.1%1,047 W · 923 L | +45.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 49c | 1,028$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.24 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 5,517 | 50.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 830.88$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.13 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 49c | 822$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.78 | 928 | 54%501 W · 427 L | +22.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 62c | 645.15$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.98 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 452.59$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.63 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 50c | 452.14$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.92 | 3,541 | 51%1,805 W · 1,736 L | +53.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Over | 49c | 409.99$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 50c | 315.41$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.55 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 38c | 220.16$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.38 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 1,448 | 50%724 W · 724 L | +26.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 61c | 162.03$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 1,742 | 49.1%856 W · 886 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Over | 45c | 150.12$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Over | 45c | 150.12$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Over | 45c | 150.12$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Over | 45c | 150.12$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 34c | 133$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 50c | 131$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 49c | 103$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Over | 49c | 99.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 22c | 84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 882 | 53.7%474 W · 408 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 801 | 43.3%347 W · 454 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 55c | 62.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 55c | 62.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 55c | 62.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 55c | 62.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 55c | 62.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 40c | 59.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 49c | 51.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 546 | 54.9%300 W · 246 L | +12.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 6,128 | 55.4%3,394 W · 2,734 L | +347.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 77c | 48.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 5,848 | 43.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L | -189.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e62…8124backed Under | 52c | 46.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Under | 52c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 51c | 38.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 705 | 55%388 W · 317 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2,549 | 45.8%1,168 W · 1,381 L | -75.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Under | 63c | 26.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 51c | 26.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 48c | 26.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4,107 | 57.6%2,366 W · 1,741 L | +65.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Over | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…7a20backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…0203backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa7…f1dfbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 62c | 16.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 2,593 | 61.5%1,595 W · 998 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.