MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c3b82043e2349b2a48e22d7f2cf667f1b798d3d663a3af3176284255de12218
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x255a…3435backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 5,175$2,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,949.95 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 5,023$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,863.24 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 4,045$2,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,387.32 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 2,951$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,737.58 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 1,534$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.35 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 1,448$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.41 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 995.09$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.96 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 700$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 495.47$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.24 | 755 | 44.2%334 W · 421 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 300.02$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.11 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Baltimore Orioles | 30c | 189.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.93 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Baltimore Orioles | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Washington Nationals | 43c | 63.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 61.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 58.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 76c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 42.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 28.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 18.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 74c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.