Europa Conference League · resolved market
RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2d7165917fdd65e45a0f3a0db230bbab4be2209bb21503763e88c7f2d02c3fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 8c | 32,094$2,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,408.52 | 3,247 | 42.2%1,370 W · 1,877 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 62c | 4,608$2,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,761.03 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 32c | 3,550$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.72 | 1,895 | 38.7%734 W · 1,161 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 24c | 3,355$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.28 | 659 | 43.9%289 W · 370 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…9490backed Over | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 76c | 1,673$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.2 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 73c | 1,540$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.65 | 334 | 42.5%142 W · 192 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 180 | 37.8%68 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Under | 65c | 999.99$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Over | 3c | 329$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 13c | 308.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 1,222 | 45.3%553 W · 669 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded4…1e6dbacked Under | 48c | 206.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.78 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…4d23backed Over | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 76c | 182.17$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 2,434 | 37.3%909 W · 1,525 L | -9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4333backed Over | 28c | 180.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 636 | 49.5%315 W · 321 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 53c | 144.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.33 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 63c | 122.47$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 1,200 | 47.4%569 W · 631 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9306…bc66backed Under | 47c | 119.04$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…3ef8backed Over | 37c | 110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 34c | 108.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 38c | 79.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 293 | 37.5%110 W · 183 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…e06ebacked Under | 53c | 76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 72c | 69.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 442 | 51.6%228 W · 214 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 38c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aab…2a65backed Over | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Under | 43c | 48.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0320…3757backed Under | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 68c | 41.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 388 | 55.4%215 W · 173 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 65c | 39.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 277 | 37.9%105 W · 172 L | -17.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 73c | 37.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 33c | 33.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 331 | 42.9%142 W · 189 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 61c | 30.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 412 | 45.6%188 W · 224 L | +25.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 34c | 30.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1,219 | 36.3%442 W · 777 L | -18.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d3…a568backed Under | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 66c | 26.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 760 | 37.4%284 W · 476 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: O/U 3.5this page
- RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: O/U 0.5Over won
- RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: O/U 1.5Over won
- RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: O/U 2.5Over won
- RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: O/U 4.5Under won
- RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: O/U 5.5Under won
- RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: Qairat FK O/U 0.5Under won
- RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: RSC Anderlecht 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: RSC Anderlecht O/U 1.5Over won
- RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: Team to AdvanceRSC Anderlecht won
- Spread: Qairat FK (-1.5)RSC Anderlecht won
- Spread: RSC Anderlecht (-1.5)RSC Anderlecht won
- Spread: RSC Anderlecht (-2.5)RSC Anderlecht won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.