Europa Conference League · resolved market
RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc67500a07e5c67beb7a39933ea0c0a61146f4902026d44a8308fd5d6faf1bb78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e97…8ffabacked Under | 2c | 4,331$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.59 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 40c | 2,854$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.82 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 51c | 1,376$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.69 | 659 | 43.9%289 W · 370 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 61c | 1,179$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.55 | 1,222 | 45.3%553 W · 669 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Under | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 47c | 968.1$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.65 | 334 | 42.5%142 W · 192 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 58c | 907$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.94 | 414 | 42.3%175 W · 239 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 58c | 851.61$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.09 | 1,895 | 38.7%734 W · 1,161 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 62c | 622.58$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.7 | 851 | 42%357 W · 494 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…91a2backed Under | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 479.64$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.84 | 3,247 | 42.2%1,370 W · 1,877 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 47c | 461.75$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.17 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 59c | 461.45$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.19 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 41c | 400$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 1,200 | 47.4%569 W · 631 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 80c | 333$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 408 | 44.4%181 W · 227 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 58c | 287.17$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.74 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 4c | 285.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 53c | 214.08$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.46 | 1,104 | 45.4%501 W · 603 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a00…9ac7backed Over | 58c | 173.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…fec3backed Over | 61c | 160.66$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…9cc3backed Under | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 42c | 114.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…0101backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 636 | 49.5%315 W · 321 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…0dc8backed Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 45c | 71.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 60c | 63.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 760 | 37.4%284 W · 476 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Under | 31c | 46.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 40c | 44.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 1,034 | 50.8%525 W · 509 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 56c | 44.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 1,219 | 36.3%442 W · 777 L | -18.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 52c | 44.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 749 | 39.4%295 W · 454 L | -23.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 39c | 37.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 277 | 37.9%105 W · 172 L | -17.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Under | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 160 | 33.8%54 W · 106 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 60c | 26.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 44c | 23.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd59f…dd3fbacked Over | 54c | 22.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 80c | 20.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc942…839cbacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: O/U 2.5this page
- RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: O/U 0.5Over won
- RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: O/U 1.5Over won
- RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: O/U 3.5Under won
- RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: O/U 4.5Under won
- RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: O/U 5.5Under won
- RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: Qairat FK O/U 0.5Under won
- RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: RSC Anderlecht 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: RSC Anderlecht O/U 1.5Over won
- RSC Anderlecht vs. Qairat FK: Team to AdvanceRSC Anderlecht won
- Spread: Qairat FK (-1.5)RSC Anderlecht won
- Spread: RSC Anderlecht (-1.5)RSC Anderlecht won
- Spread: RSC Anderlecht (-2.5)RSC Anderlecht won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.