TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,966
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,162

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,966 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ae0…7483backed Yes57c1,259$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.8310539%41 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes50c800.92$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.9265043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No46c753.5$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.912,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes50c474.37$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.928,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No49c428$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.723,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd22…2013backed Yes44c425.75$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.1631454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4dd9…3c35backed Yes56c385.91$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.82330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.7wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-47.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes50c367.86$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.365,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes31c217.35$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.471,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No48c213.71$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.61,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes44c193$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.0856543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes54c185.97$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.751,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No69c167.35$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.474,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No41c161.39$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.544,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes55c150$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6885049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No8c136.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.946,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No46c126.52$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No53c120$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1363757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No40c115.98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.291,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No55c112.26$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes30c100.28$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.7887629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7faa…c757backed No52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.55248.1%25 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1414…866abacked No52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.56243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No50c95.03$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.511,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No50c94$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes48c92.72$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0275546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes55c89.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.346,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No48c85.19$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.12,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No19c85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.771,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes38c79.75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.741,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No53c77$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.585,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No29c75.14$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes33c75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.2572837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked Yes71c74.11$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2192678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c73.73$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.315,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No69c71.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5026458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No39c70$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.333350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No53c68.26$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.032,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed Yes30c63.52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.461,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…3925backed No58c62$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.964427.3%12 W · 32 L-6.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-40.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c59.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed Yes56c57.53$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2718254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c54…02e9backed No46c54.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.186150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes46c52.59$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.47630.3%23 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No45c51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9593837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2171649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.59960.6%60 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…42efbacked No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.515545.2%70 W · 85 L-13.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x01e3…c67fbacked No58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296451.6%33 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No55c47.94$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.422,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No43c46.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.192,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No47c44$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.575,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No27c36.46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a09…9b7fbacked No54c36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4415850.6%80 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa922…9a52backed Yes59c33.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.837452.7%39 W · 35 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No46c33.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1858152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No40c33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.22,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No45c32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.42,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.94,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No58c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.42,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No48c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.353855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8581848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes64c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.857747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.277851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No45c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x816d…47d0backed Yes69c28.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.833278.1%25 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+24.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No41c26.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6352758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No58c25.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.521,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x329c…3667backed Yes55c24.7$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1212334.1%42 W · 81 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No44c22.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1166944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No45c22.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0894066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed No57c22.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7125954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9db6…e1f8backed No52c21.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1811157.7%64 W · 47 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.231,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bdc…e076backed Yes66c20.88$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.16141%25 W · 36 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.643441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed62…c51dbacked Yes74c19.49$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1334628.9%100 W · 246 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes52c19.14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.137835.9%28 W · 50 L-7.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-30.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed No66c16.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7642754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb8…7c99backed Yes79c15.78$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.382972.4%21 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f64…9600backed Yes79c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.7910758.9%63 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.