Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa31179a7f1abb8432a4df8c441849b973d2596a0ae0fde58db1783c315dd1e31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 1c | 1,535$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 18c | 965.67$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.5 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 776.81$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.11 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 41c | 570.71$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.59 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 528.49$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.03 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 39c | 459.66$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 385.44$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.92 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 38c | 288.59$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.59 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 56c | 241.27$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.18 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 61c | 209.89$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.31 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 208.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 48c | 199.43$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.66 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 37c | 171.29$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 166$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 37c | 161.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 72c | 151.93$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 148$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 49c | 146.56$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 140.97$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 62c | 128.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.37 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 64c | 107.83$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 68c | 105.77$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 54c | 88.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 37c | 76.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 64c | 76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…e9f5backed Yes | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 48c | 74.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 58c | 68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 63.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 25c | 59.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 64c | 56.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a1…6691backed Yes | 35c | 53.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 68c | 53.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 54c | 52.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 37c | 52.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 43c | 47.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 44.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 60c | 43.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 37c | 41.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 36c | 41.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 48c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 61c | 35.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 66c | 34.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d4…e363backed Yes | 41c | 32.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 35c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 45c | 27.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 52c | 27.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 61c | 26.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 25.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 61c | 25.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 52c | 25.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 71c | 24.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 53c | 24.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 59c | 22.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed Yes | 62c | 20.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 58c | 19.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 64c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.