Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdec85c11a61d135cad7f8b6ecfa7c9dc5906a1e10f16dc6988e7acd7dba78a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 972.04$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.69 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 747.67$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.03 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 26c | 570.51$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.51 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 35c | 541.84$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.81 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 463.66$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 431.27$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.92 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 353.82$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 294.32$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 280.09$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.92 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 275.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.97 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 32c | 265.32$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 15c | 261.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.31 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 36c | 252.39$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.56 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 14c | 237.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 14c | 220.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 77c | 210.47$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 39c | 206.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.29 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 177$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.01 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 174.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 172.44$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 8c | 161.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 27c | 152.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.58 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 148$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 64c | 140.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 140$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 11c | 117.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.07 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 26c | 112.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.37 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 74c | 106.28$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.19 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 102.26$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 22c | 99.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.59 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 14c | 99.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 97.84$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 96.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 23c | 94.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.51 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 79c | 91.24$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 18c | 89.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x334d…7acbbacked No | 75c | 89.32$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 34c | 82.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 25c | 78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 77c | 77.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 64.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 59.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 76c | 59.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 56.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 57c | 52.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 80c | 50.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 78c | 49.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 51c | 48.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f3…9215backed Yes | 77c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…2f9abacked Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 44.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…5ddfbacked No | 80c | 42.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 32.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked No | 73c | 31.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 70c | 31.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed No | 80c | 30.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 45c | 30.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 64c | 29.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 76c | 25.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 23.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 80c | 22.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 56c | 22.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 70c | 19.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 74c | 18.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 66c | 18.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 60c | 18.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…0329backed Yes | 80c | 18.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 64cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9e…11b3backed Yes | 73c | 17.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 77c | 16.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 64c | 15.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d4…4cf3backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.