Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d44569c5050a495ea37604a442d70e74fe5aadeb4496555fe08c5cb2525c8d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 31c | 1,183$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.45 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 21c | 718.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.07 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 56c | 540.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.4 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 494.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 481.96$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 26c | 460.28$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.86 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 35c | 428$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.82 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 425.8$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.37 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 30c | 399.7$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.31 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 32c | 386.66$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.01 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 377.28$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.69 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 43c | 351.9$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.8 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 289.5$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.19 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 18c | 285.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 261.45$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…b0c7backed Yes | 47c | 250.66$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.05 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +193.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 43c | 237.07$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.47 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 75c | 230$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 22c | 219.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 63c | 218.64$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 214$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 30c | 209.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 31c | 199.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 196$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 33c | 164.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 22c | 156.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 155$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 66c | 153.04$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 148$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 29c | 146.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 132$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 34c | 128.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 64c | 126.54$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 32c | 126.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cca…7e3abacked Yes | 42c | 108.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 70c | 106.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 74c | 106.29$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 62c | 106$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 105.92$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 98.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…e9f5backed Yes | 33c | 96.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 43c | 96.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 49c | 83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 59c | 82.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 34c | 81.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 78.27$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 45c | 78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 31c | 72.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 22c | 70.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 60c | 70.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 44c | 68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 27c | 66.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 26c | 60.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 33c | 58.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 67c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 56.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 68c | 55.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 66c | 55.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 32c | 54.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 67c | 53.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 22c | 50.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 77c | 50.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 30c | 49.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 30c | 48.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 33c | 47.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 25c | 46.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 24c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 67c | 43.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 75c | 41.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 68c | 36.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 32.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 31.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 65c | 31.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…17abbacked Yes | 40c | 30.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked No | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 28.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 26.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 25.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 67c | 25.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked Yes | 48c | 23.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 23.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 75c | 21.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.