College Football · resolved market
Spread: Kansas State (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3212beabf812ed844cd64b2dd20c56daada0ea79ab1f9d55f3c2ff6471544df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 2c | 3,200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 46c | 2,140$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.2 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 54c | 1,065$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.73 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ab…fbb5backed No | 54c | 919.33$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.89 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 50c | 599.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.27 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 47c | 499.99$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 50c | 381.6$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.98 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae6a…faf4backed Yes | 51c | 295.01$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.88 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.37per pick | 55cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 53c | 164.75$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.43 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed No | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked No | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 49c | 57.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…0f46backed No | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…c906backed No | 53c | 39.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas State (-3.5)this page
- Iowa State vs. Kansas StateIowa State won
- Iowa State vs. Kansas State: O/U 51.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.