TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Games Total: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,478
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,961

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,478 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x098c…1c67backed Under67c686.45$460 inLost-$459.921,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c79…1bd5backed Over33c303.61$100 inWon+$203.423351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ca7…0c48backed Over60c183.65$110 inWon+$73.462339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe02f…3d4cbacked Under71c169.01$120 inLost-$12010652.8%56 W · 50 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf012…1a19backed Over33c151.52$50 inWon+$101.5238034.7%132 W · 248 L-1.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6515…3d8ebacked Over33c121.21$40 inWon+$81.212548%12 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Under62c100$62 inLost-$61.553954.7%295 W · 244 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73da…b7acbacked Over29c100$29 inWon+$7132457.7%187 W · 137 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0775…b0c5backed Over78c86.23$67 inWon+$18.8825547.8%122 W · 133 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked Over59c63.71$38 inWon+$26.1221536.7%79 W · 136 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Under33c60$20 inLost-$19.813525.2%34 W · 101 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc212…c8ebbacked Over32c59.45$19 inWon+$40.33862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+35.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over54c54.88$30 inWon+$25.252,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Under50c50.2$25 inLost-$25.2626144.1%115 W · 146 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Over33c45.45$15 inWon+$30.4536244.2%160 W · 202 L+13.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x828f…d5c2backed Under72c40.28$29 inLost-$29425%1 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick70cpaid-64.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x26c7…264fbacked Over44c38.93$17 inWon+$21.9328040%112 W · 168 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72bb…281bbacked Under72c20.83$15 inLost-$151457.1%8 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick71cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.