CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: los kogutos vs MASONIC (BO3)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa33da015089b4ab35d91e1d331d8b0538577bb55a046d7bb97007bdbcc0ace12

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: los kogutosof los kogutos, MASONIC
Resolved: Jan 16, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $41,612
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $48,392

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,612 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd9a5…c602backed MASONIC	1c	4,829$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.8	332	37%123 W · 209 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked los kogutos	25c	2,531$642 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,889.39	612	28.9%177 W · 435 L	-9.2wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked los kogutos	10c	1,600$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,440	341	47.5%162 W · 179 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked los kogutos	48c	1,463$706 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$756.91	979	52.4%513 W · 466 L	+26.4wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed MASONIC	54c	1,230$664 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$664.25	972	30%292 W · 680 L	-23.7wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-12%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd864…497ebacked los kogutos	53c	1,210$635 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$574.76	6	100%6 W · 0 L	+3.3wins	+0.54per pick	46cpaid	+127.2%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x2294…4cd3backed los kogutos	46c	1,109$510 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$598.86	164	50.6%83 W · 81 L	+7.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a4e…3309backed MASONIC	41c	739.32$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	35	40%14 W · 21 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74c7…8e16backed MASONIC	78c	729.76$569 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$569.21	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	71cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed MASONIC	1c	713.07$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.17	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked los kogutos	72c	632.28$455 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.28	227	54.2%123 W · 104 L	+7.5wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbec7…5977backed MASONIC	45c	535.72$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.79	576	47.6%274 W · 302 L	-25.7wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed los kogutos	36c	530$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$339.65	623	50.9%317 W · 306 L	+18.5wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed los kogutos	30c	527$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$367.18	339	49%166 W · 173 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc14d…f137backed los kogutos	59c	476.41$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.41	81	46.9%38 W · 43 L	-8.7wins	-0.11per pick	58cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed MASONIC	72c	436.1$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315	124	50%62 W · 62 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed MASONIC	48c	384.62$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.62	967	40.7%394 W · 573 L	+12.6wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa61d…df1abacked los kogutos	52c	384.62$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.62	166	49.4%82 W · 84 L	-15.4wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5498…126fbacked MASONIC	78c	379$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.46	51	51%26 W · 25 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b9e…4580backed MASONIC	67c	373.13$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed MASONIC	19c	318.01$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.57	131	44.3%58 W · 73 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked MASONIC	80c	310.64$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.51	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed MASONIC	55c	299.99$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.99	5,810	37.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L	+78.9wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed los kogutos	35c	285.71$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.71	240	38.3%92 W · 148 L	-4.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa60…556cbacked los kogutos	54c	278.78$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.78	323	52%168 W · 155 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x762d…45a6backed los kogutos	55c	271$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.85	127	52%66 W · 61 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	-2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe64b…9cf1backed MASONIC	48c	250$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	43	62.8%27 W · 16 L	+6.2wins	+0.14per pick	48cpaid	+30%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x30f4…8c1ebacked los kogutos	29c	239.73$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$169.5	279	47.7%133 W · 146 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked los kogutos	30c	223.12$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.29	2,326	55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L	+44.8wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c87…3b59backed MASONIC	56c	201.99$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.13per pick	62cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa1a…d9abbacked los kogutos	53c	200.26$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.26	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-37%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0b6…accbbacked los kogutos	70c	200$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x007c…82fdbacked los kogutos	43c	200$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	56cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc972…affbbacked MASONIC	78c	199.99$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb673…e574backed los kogutos	16c	199.96$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.97	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4b…69debacked MASONIC	77c	168.83$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	446	41.3%184 W · 262 L	-28.7wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1bbc…7e0fbacked los kogutos	70c	142.56$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.77	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c1d…58fcbacked MASONIC	65c	135.13$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	24	62.5%15 W · 9 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked MASONIC	9c	130.07$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.71	101	11.9%12 W · 89 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc7e…ffa1backed MASONIC	39c	128.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.98	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.8wins	-0.28per pick	58cpaid	-53.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2d5e…b7e4backed MASONIC	12c	125.3$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.43	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+3.6wins	+0.36per pick	44cpaid	+54.8%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x51ba…b90bbacked MASONIC	78c	124.76$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.31	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.7wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x62ad…02b0backed MASONIC	48c	122.12$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.62	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79d1…68b3backed MASONIC	15c	121.24$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.19	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	11cpaid	+50.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e4…b4d2backed MASONIC	76c	101.2$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.3	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.14per pick	69cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a5f…e63cbacked MASONIC	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.2	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43c8…0551backed MASONIC	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	76	27.6%21 W · 55 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca6d…492bbacked los kogutos	15c	99.98$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.99	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+37.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe089…f441backed los kogutos	80c	98.76$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.76	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1099…2c19backed MASONIC	48c	93.75$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	55cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x913b…9d52backed MASONIC	58c	90$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.2	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	+49.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eca…9291backed MASONIC	40c	80$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	-2.4wins	-0.09per pick	31cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x91f3…2e5abacked MASONIC	14c	74.78$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.33	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-3.1wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5404…5e58backed los kogutos	18c	71.57$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.6	194	42.8%83 W · 111 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…70e6backed los kogutos	53c	63.73$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.79	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.16per pick	66cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61a3…b1e5backed los kogutos	22c	63.64$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.64	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked los kogutos	27c	56.39$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.39	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3452…d20dbacked los kogutos	46c	53.89$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.89	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d22…95b7backed los kogutos	53c	51.32$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.3	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0881…7d9fbacked MASONIC	40c	51.13$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.45	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24bb…34f7backed MASONIC	63c	50$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.25	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-3.3wins	-0.18per pick	57cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8b74…661fbacked los kogutos	47c	42.68$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.68	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7447…91ecbacked MASONIC	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	123	48%59 W · 64 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc9c7…007dbacked MASONIC	44c	40$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3f9…d587backed MASONIC	42c	36.16$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.31	350	33.4%117 W · 233 L	+22.4wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+44.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe127…fe33backed los kogutos	50c	36.1$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.1	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f91…8065backed los kogutos	46c	32.6$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.6	20	70%14 W · 6 L	+3.5wins	+0.18per pick	52cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xce0a…2d88backed MASONIC	65c	30.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	66	57.6%38 W · 28 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	62cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c55…84cebacked MASONIC	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	335	39.4%132 W · 203 L	-19.1wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4786…ff95backed MASONIC	67c	29.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	69	52.2%36 W · 33 L	-4.6wins	-0.07per pick	59cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b60…7508backed los kogutos	40c	25$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe2…e4d2backed MASONIC	48c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	123	44.7%55 W · 68 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd921…737bbacked los kogutos	65c	24.5$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.57	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	61cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7fc…1511backed MASONIC	75c	23.64$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.73	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.17per pick	40cpaid	-64.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4d0…91acbacked los kogutos	49c	22.64$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.64	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	-1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad9d…9b95backed MASONIC	48c	22.46$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	163	45.4%74 W · 89 L	-8.7wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb50f…c837backed los kogutos	65c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	57cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1600…9236backed MASONIC	70c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9cd…432cbacked MASONIC	69c	19.31$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.27	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcba…4e1dbacked los kogutos	80c	13.72$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.75	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	72cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Counter-Strike: los kogutos vs MASONIC (BO3)this page
Counter-Strike: los kogutos vs MASONIC - Map 1 WinnerMASONIC won
Counter-Strike: los kogutos vs MASONIC - Map 2 Winnerlos kogutos won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Counter-Strike: los kogutos vs MASONIC (BO3)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event