Asian League · resolved market
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa350bfc8d8f6b7cb24d5c4b9c781ab6c91266c5bf279b030798ed8ea9b96fccd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 19c | 5,128$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,135.39 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 40c | 3,156$1,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,892.8 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 19c | 2,355$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,907.02 | 83 | 18.1%15 W · 68 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 75c | 1,696$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.17 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Under | 68c | 1,611$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 52c | 1,476$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.52 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 29c | 1,079$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.72 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 80c | 997.56$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.05 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 80c | 625$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 68c | 542.17$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.19 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 19c | 500$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 32c | 339$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.21 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x99e2…ffd9backed Over | 49c | 316.33$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.33 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 32c | 299.49$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.65 | 119 | 31.9%38 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 50c | 268.02$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.01 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x414c…f10bbacked Under | 80c | 266.87$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 78cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Over | 22c | 221.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.91 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 31c | 218.87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.5 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 50c | 200.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 26.3%25 W · 70 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 33c | 181.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.92 | 375 | 62.7%235 W · 140 L | +61.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Under | 60c | 163.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 80c | 156$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8c…3d1abacked Under | 68c | 148$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b84…6accbacked Under | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 62c | 130$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.48 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 18c | 129.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.28 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 19c | 78.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 79c | 70$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…3e18backed Over | 79c | 67.05$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +858.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 423 | 51.3%217 W · 206 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 66c | 56.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x943b…e35ebacked Under | 65c | 45.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 80c | 42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 75c | 39.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 78c | 37.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 405 | 50.6%205 W · 200 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…9e97backed Under | 50c | 30.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…6f16backed Under | 68c | 26.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…cebabacked Under | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 71cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Over | 49c | 22.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Liaoning Tieren FC (-1.5)Shanghai Haigang FC won
- Spread: Shanghai Haigang FC (-1.5)Liaoning Tieren FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.