Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa374923b82b85f0492a1eb7fbdea7d9204b7168b73eb1fd54443f66dfb90d091
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x056d…3b69backed Yes | 10c | 1,565$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,021$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.65 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…9578backed Yes | 25c | 510$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.7 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 13c | 463.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 400.59$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.42 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 12c | 389.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 372.34$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked Yes | 57c | 328.79$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.36 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 5c | 232.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34e5…3d01backed Yes | 19c | 199.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 164.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 161.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 22c | 158.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 11c | 152.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 129.95$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 127.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 77c | 116$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…329bbacked Yes | 57c | 107.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 104.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes | 27c | 83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 75c | 74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 77c | 64.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 64c | 62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 28c | 60.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Yes | 21c | 60.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 80c | 59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 72c | 58.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 80c | 54.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…f8ecbacked Yes | 22c | 47.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…5912backed Yes | 27c | 44.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 29.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 70c | 26.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfafe…066fbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 65c | 18.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 80c | 14.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.