Fifa International · resolved market
Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3816db02c91e729d1c4d8778789197afec62e2b8e4b551a6c9bd7e99411c276
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5e…fd91backed No | 21c | 4,321$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.79 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc4…4089backed Yes | 77c | 3,000$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18b…51b9backed Yes | 79c | 2,198$1,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.49 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…90dfbacked No | 23c | 1,675$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes | 80c | 780.39$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.47 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 22c | 733.16$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.35 | 181 | 39.8%72 W · 109 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed Yes | 79c | 532$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.72 | 256 | 38.7%99 W · 157 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 79c | 239.26$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 22c | 235.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 8c | 234$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 22c | 206$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 345 | 54.2%187 W · 158 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Yes | 77c | 194.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 13c | 173$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 13c | 141.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 130 | 60.8%79 W · 51 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked No | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 12c | 117$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 22c | 105$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 147 | 39.5%58 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 79c | 100.01$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed No | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 21c | 97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 18c | 69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…4e3bbacked Yes | 79c | 61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 78c | 49.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 24c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?this page
- Will Qatar be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.