Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Dignitas (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3d7301fa6f5113e39404c6972fc4e96dcb51cd95d98b455fb2409fe7b77d73c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FlyQuestof FlyQuest, Dignitas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b59…3aa6backed Dignitas | 47c | 4,400$2,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,067.99 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44d9…01e3backed FlyQuest | 53c | 3,873$2,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,820.45 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Dignitas | 49c | 959.71$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.26 | 1,180 | 44.5%525 W · 655 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc0…6139backed FlyQuest | 54c | 723.24$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.33 | 353 | 46.7%165 W · 188 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0a6bbacked Dignitas | 45c | 635.86$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.14 | 670 | 56.9%381 W · 289 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed FlyQuest | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 288 | 43.8%126 W · 162 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed FlyQuest | 51c | 490$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.1 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccbc…7e80backed Dignitas | 47c | 397.36$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.76 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdec9…b8abbacked Dignitas | 47c | 392.16$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.32 | 331 | 53.2%176 W · 155 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbb…3df5backed Dignitas | 48c | 389.99$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.2 | 301 | 51.5%155 W · 146 L | +11.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…0558backed FlyQuest | 53c | 366.72$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.36 | 182 | 36.8%67 W · 115 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…f681backed Dignitas | 48c | 299.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 370 | 39.5%146 W · 224 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed FlyQuest | 53c | 283.45$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.82 | 479 | 33.6%161 W · 318 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc762…0276backed FlyQuest | 53c | 218.66$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.77 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Dignitas | 47c | 207$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 299 | 52.2%156 W · 143 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed FlyQuest | 55c | 195.79$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.77 | 798 | 64.3%513 W · 285 L | +32.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…c85abacked FlyQuest | 55c | 188.86$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.62 | 120 | 67.5%81 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…612abacked FlyQuest | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.65 | 440 | 46.4%204 W · 236 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f1…21fabacked FlyQuest | 53c | 184.19$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.03 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc671…b0c7backed FlyQuest | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 428 | 47.9%205 W · 223 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Dignitas | 41c | 151.74$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 780 | 50%390 W · 390 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked FlyQuest | 51c | 137$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.13 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked Dignitas | 49c | 132.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 288 | 37.5%108 W · 180 L | -16.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed FlyQuest | 52c | 104.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 650 | 63.2%411 W · 239 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…7d66backed Dignitas | 51c | 98.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Dignitas | 45c | 67.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed FlyQuest | 55c | 65.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 237 | 48.5%115 W · 122 L | -15.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Dignitas | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 536 | 49.8%267 W · 269 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked FlyQuest | 53c | 55.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed FlyQuest | 49c | 51.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf52f…b2f5backed FlyQuest | 55c | 46.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 169 | 50.3%85 W · 84 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56af…7527backed FlyQuest | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed FlyQuest | 55c | 32.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 1,576 | 48.4%763 W · 813 L | +17.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…15b2backed FlyQuest | 52c | 28.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed FlyQuest | 54c | 24.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 1,170 | 66.2%774 W · 396 L | +69.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf163…ca34backed FlyQuest | 59c | 21.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 1,477 | 48.3%713 W · 764 L | +45.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292d…1321backed FlyQuest | 55c | 19.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Dignitas (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: FlyQuest vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular SeasonFlyQuest won
- LoL: FlyQuest vs Dignitas - Game 1 WinnerFlyQuest won
- LoL: FlyQuest vs Dignitas - Game 2 WinnerFlyQuest won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.