MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3d9c5a4b2c3aafe5276d3f45835407d7f5002ef8cd602b54939dbbc8bd322fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab1c…aaddbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 26c | 4,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,960 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 74c | 3,924$2,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,899.24 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 78c | 479.11$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.86 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 59c | 456.12$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.68 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 402$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.51 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 32c | 367.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.23 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 26c | 220$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.8 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x557d…442dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 24c | 208.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Milwaukee Brewers | 28c | 196.46$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.45 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 64c | 195$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 65c | 169.47$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Milwaukee Brewers | 32c | 149.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.45 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 65c | 147.52$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.22 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af3…bfa1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 77c | 114.73$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.34 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 27c | 106$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.38 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Milwaukee Brewers | 24c | 99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.57 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 26c | 88.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 74c | 84.35$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 66c | 74.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 41.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 76c | 31.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 59c | 20.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 73c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 75c | 13.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles DodgersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.