MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf39a3fcb60a01df41789b22d902a87b373056b1fb2fd2bb2f0291dd15b47f21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 59c | 6,708$3,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,969.83 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 3,962$1,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,303.5 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 2,274$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.12 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 1,859$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd3…8289backed Milwaukee Brewers | 80c | 1,252$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.66 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 1,201$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.53 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 1,078$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.02 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 506.32$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 425.52$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.69 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Milwaukee Brewers | 23c | 423.52$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.16 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 227.42$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.42 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 15c | 198$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 158$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Milwaukee Brewers | 75c | 133.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 113.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 113.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…8eebbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 110.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 106.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 98.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x186b…9bbabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b89…9f72backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 92.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 17c | 88.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 35c | 88.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 84.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 82.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 63c | 76.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 18c | 75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 70.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 54.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 52.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…549dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 46.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 34c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 42.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 42.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 38.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 35.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles DodgersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.