MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfa026318c103bcafd6db0858ff8604ef8152980c6ec474ba84be66358f98b31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 44c | 1,833$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.46 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Yes | 44c | 1,000$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.54 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 58c | 843.65$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.23 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 42c | 843.62$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.8 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 56c | 734.42$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.8 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 55c | 665.25$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.06 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 45c | 585$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.25 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed No | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 56c | 530$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.2 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 43c | 208$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed No | 56c | 204.49$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.98 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…74c8backed No | 55c | 182.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.03 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed No | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…63bfbacked No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 193 | 58%112 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed No | 56c | 142$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 43c | 100.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked No | 57c | 89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed No | 55c | 79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…8268backed No | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 118 | 61%72 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 42c | 65.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 56c | 51.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa0…a77bbacked No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 42c | 36.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 42c | 33.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 57c | 18.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgersthis page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles DodgersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.