Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3f9a06de8d4aa76e4031faaac1ff2dfcb7ce1fdbbf2b334dfc2851255ac9c15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 56c | 1,154$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.91 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 32c | 1,067$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.72 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa24a…d9fabacked No | 56c | 767.53$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 5c | 706.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 14c | 603.47$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 578.94$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.28 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 49c | 557.96$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.59 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 4c | 540.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked No | 65c | 528.84$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.2 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0316…ab05backed No | 65c | 528.53$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 32c | 467.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.18 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 15c | 404.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…bbe3backed No | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 374.01$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 40c | 352.32$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.45 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 32c | 351.14$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.62 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 38c | 336.07$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.96 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 8c | 306.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 32c | 285.04$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.64 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 27c | 245.11$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.1 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 26c | 230.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.05 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 18c | 225$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 6c | 211.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked Yes | 77c | 209.91$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 26c | 190$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.6 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 14c | 179.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 148.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.64 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 135$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 19c | 129.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 11c | 120.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 106$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9301…388cbacked Yes | 20c | 100.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 17c | 95.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 30c | 94.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 88.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 30c | 87.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 23c | 79.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 63c | 70.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 18c | 68.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 24c | 64.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 71c | 63.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf099…c6d1backed No | 22c | 51.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7348…6f74backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked No | 40c | 47.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 37c | 45.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 26c | 41.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 30c | 38.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed Yes | 60c | 37.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 34.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e1…716dbacked Yes | 49c | 30.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 65c | 30.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked No | 65c | 30.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…49b7backed Yes | 79c | 25.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 44c | 25.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.