TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
BV Borussia 09 Dortmundof VfB Stuttgart, BV Borussia 09 Dortmund
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,063
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,069

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,063 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x42df…bb2fbacked VfB Stuttgart21c190.52$40 inLost-$40.015834.5%20 W · 38 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+43.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked VfB Stuttgart19c129.22$25 inLost-$24.681,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked VfB Stuttgart21c108.07$23 inLost-$22.571,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58be…2517backed VfB Stuttgart23c62.2$14 inLost-$14.31175.9%1 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.23per pick28cpaid-84.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund80c61.75$49 inWon+$12.354963.3%31 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund79c54.88$43 inWon+$11.522,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund78c32.67$25 inWon+$7.193,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…70c5backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund78c13.92$11 inWon+$3.061376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.