Bundesliga · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e15e2f0afcbcace45bd21f8922dfe1345c77db2e4f7ffc1dc6efee9ae3ea786
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7879…3653backed Over | 26c | 5,501$1,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416.94 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 28c | 2,053$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.07 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 77c | 2,043$1,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.88 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 72c | 1,950$1,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 76c | 1,584$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.21 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 73c | 1,454$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.3 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 23c | 1,249$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.38 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…032dbacked Over | 11c | 583.68$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 19c | 540.8$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe802…e465backed Over | 27c | 418.21$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.67 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd403…048abacked Under | 77c | 384.23$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 25c | 382$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 28c | 333.68$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 73c | 309.01$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.34 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 79c | 262.84$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 79c | 261.61$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 79c | 251.93$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 8c | 212.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 24c | 199.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2085…dd27backed Over | 24c | 198.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 72c | 179.18$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 70c | 177.68$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.31 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfc…18e3backed Under | 77c | 128.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 79c | 126.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 79c | 125.2$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 27c | 88.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 74c | 78.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 73c | 70.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 74c | 65.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…5335backed Over | 28c | 57.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 74c | 47.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0c…a98fbacked Under | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd1…5d5fbacked Under | 77c | 39.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ec…f845backed Under | 75c | 32.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…e809backed Under | 73c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 73c | 13.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.