South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Independiente end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa42dc08bdc7af4d5e0dffb8c5aadbf7a3c1c1f024d42d82f78a16c19a6691a67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 49c | 5,585$2,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,744.06 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 56c | 5,483$3,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,422.03 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…2fa1backed No | 47c | 3,191$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,692.57 | 108 | 28.7%31 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 62c | 2,533$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.99 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 25c | 2,434$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.47 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 79c | 734.88$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.75 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…9c69backed No | 65c | 716.53$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.79 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x461d…db9ebacked No | 60c | 700$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a49…737abacked Yes | 40c | 651.34$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 17c | 622.74$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.39 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 67c | 420.36$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.72 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 27c | 275.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.16 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 28c | 269.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.63 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Yes | 52c | 250.44$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.13 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 51c | 243.81$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.57 | 331 | 52.6%174 W · 157 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 21c | 240.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x975c…6343backed Yes | 32c | 180.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…ab54backed Yes | 32c | 180.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac48…e505backed Yes | 32c | 180.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Yes | 37c | 170.21$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 155.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8b…b723backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Yes | 47c | 148.46$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe37c…ef29backed Yes | 42c | 139.4$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 47c | 130.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 47c | 130.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed Yes | 18c | 108.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3309…209dbacked Yes | 31c | 107.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 47c | 103$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 68c | 99.4$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 491 | 36.3%178 W · 313 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 47c | 98.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed No | 68c | 94.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 69c | 91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 382 | 33%126 W · 256 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Yes | 45c | 82.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…f642backed No | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 31c | 76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 51c | 70.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 18c | 59.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Yes | 51c | 56.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Yes | 51c | 56.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Yes | 36c | 55.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 191 | 64.4%123 W · 68 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Yes | 51c | 51.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe763…149abacked Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Yes | 48c | 44.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 164 | 59.8%98 W · 66 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Yes | 40c | 43.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 153 | 64.1%98 W · 55 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b8…233abacked Yes | 32c | 42.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 31c | 40.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked No | 67c | 38.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 34c | 32.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 34c | 32.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4258…85adbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed No | 44c | 29.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Yes | 43c | 23.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 23.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e9…4709backed Yes | 56c | 19.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Independiente end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Independiente win on 2026-08-03?No won
- Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-08-03?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.