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Europa Conference League · resolved market

FC CFR 1907 Cluj vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,939
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,136

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,939 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under32c2,067$658 inLost-$657.723,72647%1,750 W · 1,976 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over72c2,015$1,443 inWon+$571.582,79534.8%973 W · 1,822 L-86.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over75c1,845$1,389 inWon+$455.242,73840.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L-1.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1b2…4bfcbacked Under3c1,000$30 inLost-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a1…30d1backed Over28c709.13$199 inWon+$510.442166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+31.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under30c548.6$165 inLost-$164.581,10445.4%501 W · 603 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39e7…ceedbacked Over26c384.62$100 inWon+$284.622123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a64…683ebacked Under73c377.62$276 inLost-$275.663447.1%16 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8152…5b51backed Under60c305$183 inLost-$1836451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Under20c293.25$59 inLost-$58.6516832.7%55 W · 113 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over60c166.2$100 inWon+$66.481,22245.3%553 W · 669 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x882c…5d07backed Under21c125.65$27 inLost-$26.7635746.2%165 W · 192 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Under34c117.8$40 inLost-$40.1731856%178 W · 140 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ede…23e5backed Under72c100$72 inLost-$721241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick60cpaid-24.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Under34c79.25$27 inLost-$27.0319463.4%123 W · 71 L+11.2wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under70c72.6$51 inLost-$50.6541245.6%188 W · 224 L+25.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over40c71.84$28 inWon+$43.3918659.1%110 W · 76 L+20.0wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+28.9%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Under37c67.12$25 inLost-$24.942957.1%245 W · 184 L+16.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under44c67$29 inLost-$29.3383845%377 W · 461 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over25c60.92$15 inWon+$45.691,21936.3%442 W · 777 L-18.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0464…67dabacked Under47c47.17$22 inLost-$22.2938855.4%215 W · 173 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over41c45.5$19 inWon+$26.853,24742.2%1,370 W · 1,877 L+4.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over74c40$30 inWon+$10.474939.4%295 W · 454 L-23.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cef…2c8dbacked Under71c38.84$28 inLost-$27.583571.4%25 W · 10 L+5.2wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+29.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under75c27.76$21 inLost-$20.821,79354.8%983 W · 810 L+11.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over39c26.54$10 inWon+$16.192,43437.3%909 W · 1,525 L-9.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0fc…097ebacked Under75c18$14 inLost-$13.52955.2%16 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.