Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa45a5886068ec78964f7f92b796d004a5241317275850efcaa72f420a470e00d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1232…d20abacked Yes | 0c | 5,547$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 1,187$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 4c | 807.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81c…164abacked Yes | 17c | 396.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…41a2backed No | 77c | 325.76$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.52 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 79c | 311.71$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 29c | 278.38$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.97 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 277.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…ffaebacked Yes | 16c | 267.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5d…54e1backed Yes | 25c | 260.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 26c | 231.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa479…ef6bbacked Yes | 22c | 209.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 204.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 22c | 199.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 12c | 198.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 23c | 192.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 10c | 168.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 76c | 164.67$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…14cbbacked No | 77c | 162.49$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 152.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 151.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…dc4ebacked Yes | 25c | 127.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked Yes | 17c | 122.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 27c | 111$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 26c | 107.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 19c | 104.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb149…9cd3backed Yes | 30c | 80.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 18c | 78.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 18c | 77.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 16c | 72.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…7a6bbacked No | 79c | 64.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 57.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eac…db04backed Yes | 20c | 51.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 26c | 50.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…9ee4backed Yes | 25c | 49.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 68c | 45.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 31c | 44.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3412…e651backed No | 73c | 40.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 80c | 39.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…bf41backed Yes | 28c | 37.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 75c | 34.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 68c | 34.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f3…0b6cbacked No | 66c | 28.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7798…8b1dbacked No | 80c | 25.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +107%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 75c | 23.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 77c | 20.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 78c | 18.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 73c | 16.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 15.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…041fbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 77c | 14.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.