Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0445a93f89abbf598fd9a3358416b9e5b56b3ee2606fabad0a213f33c2386ea7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 1,488$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.69 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7128…85d1backed No | 2c | 566.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 19c | 537.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 33c | 519.68$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.82 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 49c | 408.77$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.27 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 302.4$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 23c | 281.88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.91 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…2ddfbacked No | 8c | 235.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed No | 73c | 221.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 217.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 18c | 206.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.35 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…92f7backed Yes | 22c | 196.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.44 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb0…9e4fbacked Yes | 26c | 191.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.71 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 23c | 162.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 140.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 76c | 128.95$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdab8…bfbebacked Yes | 55c | 121.84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 38c | 107.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 104.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.03 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 60c | 99.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 64c | 96.4$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 49c | 90.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed No | 69c | 90$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 87.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 63c | 72.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 29c | 69.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 26c | 66.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 74c | 64.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 21c | 63.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 46c | 60.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 58.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 58c | 57.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 30c | 57.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 43c | 54.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 75c | 52.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed No | 44c | 50.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 57c | 45.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 42c | 41.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 78c | 34.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…a0a2backed No | 80c | 31.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 50c | 31.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 43c | 30.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…416fbacked No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed Yes | 76c | 25.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…14a8backed No | 78c | 25.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 42c | 23.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5eac…db04backed Yes | 59c | 20.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf810…8235backed No | 73c | 19.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…66cdbacked No | 74c | 13.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.