Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa1e4dd8e89c50ef4d3af17866f2ffa463322e49ae6c592100709e9427e6e440
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 1,185$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 3c | 1,090$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 80c | 449.95$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.74 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 80c | 423.95$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 46c | 227.48$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.58 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 17c | 220$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 39c | 169.1$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.11 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 151.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…92f7backed Yes | 54c | 150.92$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.83 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa257…9233backed Yes | 18c | 137.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb0…9e4fbacked Yes | 55c | 102.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 45c | 98.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 92.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 44c | 92.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…dc4ebacked Yes | 36c | 90.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 32c | 77.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 76.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 45c | 76.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 76.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 74.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 32c | 71.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 53c | 71.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 67.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab8…bfbebacked Yes | 69c | 59.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 59c | 59.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 55.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 69c | 53.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 51.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked No | 33c | 48.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 57c | 46.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 40c | 41.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 40.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 27c | 39.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 50c | 39.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 68c | 37.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 61c | 37.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 46c | 34.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 67c | 33.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 31.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…14cbbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 66c | 29.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 60c | 28.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 43c | 25.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 62c | 22.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…9ee4backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed No | 68c | 19.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.