Tennis · resolved market
ASB Classic: Alexandre Muller vs Marcos Giron
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4719c308a3567ed6c2b3a2975cf35b629ece404a1040040d2d4da19881dac95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gironof Muller, Giron
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Muller | 46c | 8,240$3,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,756.32 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Giron | 54c | 5,000$2,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,283 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…c100backed Giron | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.99 | 430 | 51.2%220 W · 210 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Muller | 46c | 2,643$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.85 | 724 | 52.6%381 W · 343 L | +34.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Giron | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.99 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Giron | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe8…3549backed Giron | 52c | 1,181$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.92 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Giron | 70c | 818.57$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.01 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Muller | 47c | 800$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Muller | 6c | 775.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Giron | 56c | 634$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007c…82fdbacked Muller | 50c | 596$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Giron | 54c | 513.95$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.41 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…db1bbacked Muller | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -6.4wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Muller | 20c | 468.39$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 289 | 33.2%96 W · 193 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…24d7backed Muller | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Muller | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 401 | 41.9%168 W · 233 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Muller | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 279 | 44.1%123 W · 156 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Muller | 47c | 342.85$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.12 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Muller | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Giron | 53c | 317.82$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.82 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Muller | 43c | 307.67$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.81 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…0002backed Muller | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Muller | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Giron | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 373 | 39.1%146 W · 227 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…7102backed Giron | 55c | 217.13$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.55 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…7553backed Muller | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…26eabacked Muller | 43c | 209.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.29 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Muller | 35c | 207.8$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…bd3abacked Muller | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +7.1wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Muller | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Giron | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Muller | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Giron | 56c | 180.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.13 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Muller | 47c | 180$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 491 | 42.8%210 W · 281 L | -15.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Giron | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Muller | 14c | 156.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Giron | 57c | 140.77$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.77 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Muller | 26c | 135.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…ed2ebacked Giron | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Muller | 20c | 117.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Giron | 56c | 107.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 174 | 32.2%56 W · 118 L | -15.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Muller | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Giron | 69c | 102.46$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…8f96backed Muller | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 178 | 63.5%113 W · 65 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Giron | 55c | 82.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Muller | 26c | 75.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd29b…b518backed Giron | 56c | 70.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Giron | 55c | 69.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Muller | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Giron | 56c | 60.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 437 | 49%214 W · 223 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Muller | 29c | 50.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ad…44febacked Giron | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Muller | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Muller | 43c | 48.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Muller | 50c | 46.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 530 | 58.1%308 W · 222 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…1068backed Giron | 56c | 46.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Giron | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Muller | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Muller | 35c | 37.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 684 | 30%205 W · 479 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…70e3backed Giron | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…3c66backed Giron | 56c | 32.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Giron | 50c | 28.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 182 | 41.8%76 W · 106 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Giron | 67c | 27.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked Giron | 56c | 26.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Giron | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Giron | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Muller | 48c | 24.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Muller | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…7426backed Giron | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ASB Classic: Alexandre Muller vs Marcos Gironthis page
- Muller vs. Giron: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Muller vs. Giron: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Muller vs. Giron: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Muller vs GironGiron won
- Set Handicap: Giron (-1.5) vs Muller (+1.5)Giron won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.