Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4b57af0e1fa56147b73db800e2cc9fee725c6eb2b73b6ef2cff7dac87be677d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd60c…f46cbacked No | 58c | 5,700$3,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,394 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…0dc8backed Yes | 42c | 5,700$2,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,394 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 3,745$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.3 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 6c | 1,889$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.81 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 41c | 1,072$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.63 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,018$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 6c | 682.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 12c | 600$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 4c | 533.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 43c | 494.05$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.83 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc792…5148backed Yes | 28c | 469$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 14c | 398.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 5c | 376.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 42c | 368.47$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.85 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 316.31$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5db1…0627backed Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 11c | 250.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 69c | 201.71$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 36c | 199.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed No | 70c | 199.99$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 19c | 199.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 63c | 199.26$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.28 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 50c | 164.69$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.57 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 161.56$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 53c | 140.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 63c | 133.38$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9a…fd63backed Yes | 38c | 130.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 34c | 128.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 120.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…dd10backed Yes | 34c | 118.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 53c | 112.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 28c | 105.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 77c | 104.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…facdbacked Yes | 43c | 100.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 94.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb8…f592backed Yes | 35c | 92.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed No | 74c | 82.36$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked No | 55c | 80.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 50c | 78.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94e7…c00cbacked Yes | 34c | 77.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked No | 67c | 74.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x326a…2ebfbacked Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 19c | 66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 47c | 64.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf724…c178backed Yes | 31c | 63.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed No | 68c | 63.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 33c | 61.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 21c | 60.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…daadbacked No | 74c | 59.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1d…ffeabacked Yes | 20c | 55.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 54.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc1…b3d4backed Yes | 37c | 54.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 27c | 52.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 52.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…1125backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 63c | 45.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f36…0c01backed Yes | 45c | 44.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 46c | 43.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 58c | 41.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…7e95backed No | 71c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…e3c0backed No | 61c | 40.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…7d0dbacked Yes | 43c | 37.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 42c | 36.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75fa…0133backed Yes | 50c | 36.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 48c | 35.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…a68bbacked No | 72c | 34.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 35c | 34.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 35c | 33.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…31c4backed No | 63c | 30.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c0…dd68backed Yes | 41c | 29.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 52c | 28.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 49c | 27.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac9…cb32backed No | 56c | 26.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 26.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…ae79backed No | 54c | 25.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b5…0d88backed Yes | 53c | 23.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ff…5dbbbacked No | 59c | 23.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…35b8backed No | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46bc…4894backed No | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 71c | 17.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7443…357fbacked No | 70c | 16.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.