Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x633e9b67688684864c0200e6dee4a8d0c60ff77715fa151788d2cdd3a35650bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 5,530$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.32 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,194$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 1,063$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 572.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 8c | 510.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 9c | 445.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 4c | 444.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 6c | 367.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 21c | 322.22$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 18c | 306.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 300.01$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.06 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5db1…0627backed Yes | 28c | 299.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 5c | 297.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 24c | 291.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.62 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 14c | 245.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 18c | 232.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 11c | 221.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 29c | 216.21$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.09 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 214.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…5ce7backed Yes | 8c | 210$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc792…5148backed Yes | 18c | 194$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…76a2backed Yes | 31c | 178.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 17c | 168$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 23c | 167.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a5…87b4backed Yes | 30c | 163.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 79c | 163.48$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…880abacked Yes | 12c | 156.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 151.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 20c | 148.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9a…8206backed Yes | 32c | 148.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 73c | 146.2$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 16c | 141$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3d…1882backed Yes | 21c | 140$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4285…b90fbacked Yes | 17c | 139.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x918b…da5dbacked Yes | 29c | 131.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e7…c00cbacked Yes | 33c | 129.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b06…978dbacked Yes | 10c | 115.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 75c | 109.07$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 74c | 108.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 104.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…8c39backed Yes | 30c | 101.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 21c | 100.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…7e95backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d74…b055backed Yes | 20c | 99.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c0…dd68backed Yes | 27c | 98.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…677dbacked Yes | 31c | 98.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 17c | 95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77ce…e90bbacked Yes | 14c | 94.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…c94fbacked Yes | 35c | 94.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6a…7829backed Yes | 21c | 93.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 25c | 90.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc92b…d66ebacked Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked No | 73c | 79.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 20c | 75.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3c…9e2dbacked Yes | 27c | 69.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x679e…60dabacked Yes | 29c | 67.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b7…da2abacked Yes | 22c | 67.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…dd10backed Yes | 16c | 66.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked No | 75c | 65.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…03e9backed Yes | 33c | 59.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…0ae6backed Yes | 22c | 56.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7891…385dbacked Yes | 24c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…95eebacked No | 75c | 54.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b10…d705backed Yes | 27c | 51.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 20c | 50.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 26c | 50.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…9c76backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b0…b4f4backed Yes | 25c | 46.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38a…52ccbacked Yes | 28c | 43.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…1125backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 78c | 35.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 77c | 32.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…daadbacked No | 77c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 80c | 23.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…d8d3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01b2…9cf8backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c5…8511backed No | 80c | 19.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeac9…cb32backed No | 80c | 18.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.