Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fea9a71e7bcbc3468848d1cc81ef029ba6e11d242181d3e7a211359ac41a6a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 4,069$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 2,450$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.45 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 7c | 1,817$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.95 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 68c | 1,040$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.24 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 3c | 700$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 20c | 592.12$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.04 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 12c | 537.17$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 21c | 422.68$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 35c | 421.7$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.14 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 30c | 380.58$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.45 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 8c | 356.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 352.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.15 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 16c | 319.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 28c | 303.21$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 14c | 300.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 21c | 279.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 29c | 249.41$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.33 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed Yes | 31c | 244.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d18…63cabacked Yes | 18c | 243.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 235.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 20c | 234.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 16c | 208.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f36…0c01backed Yes | 37c | 182.73$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 65c | 175.97$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 22c | 168.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 19c | 165.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 162.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 160.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 77c | 160.01$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed No | 77c | 160$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9864…b2ebbacked Yes | 31c | 159.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 23c | 158.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 22c | 155.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 24c | 154.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 79c | 148.46$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 22c | 145.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 21c | 140.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 132.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 33c | 129.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…facdbacked Yes | 33c | 129.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf724…c178backed Yes | 36c | 129.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 20c | 124.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 122.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 31c | 119$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 21c | 118.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb8…f592backed Yes | 39c | 115.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 36c | 111.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 26c | 100.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 98.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…7e95backed No | 56c | 95.91$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 21c | 75.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…d8d3backed No | 67c | 75.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9443…12ebbacked No | 74c | 72.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 22c | 70.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 79c | 70.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 66c | 68.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 38c | 68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…31d2backed Yes | 30c | 66.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 41c | 66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc956…9168backed Yes | 38c | 65.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…bc71backed Yes | 52c | 65.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x326a…2ebfbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…7121backed Yes | 38c | 60.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…dd10backed Yes | 41c | 60.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 26c | 57.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked Yes | 26c | 57.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 21c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…5ce7backed Yes | 50c | 56.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47d7…a0d9backed Yes | 44c | 54.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 54.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 60c | 49.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 68c | 48.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 57c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 22c | 45.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9435…e478backed No | 80c | 45.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3d…1882backed Yes | 34c | 44.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1d…ffeabacked Yes | 26c | 44.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed Yes | 27c | 43.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 70c | 42.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…e3c0backed No | 77c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…a68bbacked No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 64c | 38.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x918b…da5dbacked Yes | 40c | 36.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 31c | 36.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 77c | 34.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.