Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee171e34cb8494e5eb5f54ca3c70638a79f01190359b81e093a71c4c712cc6b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 10c | 2,906$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,614.74 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 63c | 2,837$1,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.37 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 48c | 2,347$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.96 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 20c | 1,099$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.97 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 37c | 740.86$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.77 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 60c | 692.66$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.65 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 26c | 610.85$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.01 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed No | 52c | 581.03$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.79 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 76c | 525.57$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.68 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 18c | 501.13$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.13 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 41c | 468.46$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.99 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…551fbacked No | 12c | 465.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 48c | 423.44$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.08 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked No | 10c | 414.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…2493backed Yes | 11c | 403.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 4cpaid | +197.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 14c | 357.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f36…0c01backed Yes | 26c | 324.76$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.76 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 69c | 293.99$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.7 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 59c | 280.03$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.19 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 245.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 51c | 240$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.71 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 53c | 228.31$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.55 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked No | 34c | 219.88$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 10c | 212.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 5c | 200.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.56 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 10c | 199.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.95 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 23c | 197.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.21 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 43c | 191.96$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.19 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 76c | 190$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 181.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.61 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 49c | 164.83$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.68 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 14c | 154.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.42 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.28 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 15c | 141.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.52 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc6…1a3ebacked Yes | 18c | 139.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.97 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 34c | 134.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.9 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 45c | 117.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.98 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…4e69backed Yes | 78c | 101.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.71 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed No | 22c | 98.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 31c | 91.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a11…46a3backed Yes | 22c | 90.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 33c | 90$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.55 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 44c | 82.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7443…357fbacked Yes | 57c | 74.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…7462backed No | 68c | 68.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 16c | 66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 75c | 62.87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 46c | 56.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 59c | 52.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…e3c0backed No | 79c | 41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 63c | 36.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 76c | 33.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes | 63c | 32.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99cf…d4d2backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 29.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 76c | 27.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 79c | 26.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…a226backed Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a71…fd47backed Yes | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad6…7880backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.