MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4b73f4574a394b64dd3eb9953f83e96d7ffc734227c08583fb33be4e0509ad6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 34c | 3,813$1,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,501.6 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 66c | 1,932$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.12 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88aa…2f5ebacked Over | 65c | 816.23$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.55 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 65c | 723.65$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.17 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…96e2backed Over | 65c | 510.19$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.62 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…c3b7backed Over | 65c | 510.19$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.62 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 66c | 302.57$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 34c | 291.64$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.48 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 43c | 236.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.81 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 74c | 231.18$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.98 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 35c | 164.27$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.78 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Over | 65c | 135.38$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 104.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 35c | 94.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 65c | 91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 70c | 75.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 34c | 64.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Over | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 30c | 43.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 53c | 34.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Over | 65c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 39c | 30.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 47c | 29.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 65c | 20.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 67c | 19.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf47f…15adbacked Over | 70c | 17.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc103…ccc3backed Over | 77c | 13.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.