MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe514dac5bac827db54c4dfca0feae6c08451c19f65cc3bbb024761dcb4a3e055
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 4,245$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,833.4 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 58c | 4,182$2,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,766.75 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 55c | 2,200$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 45c | 2,195$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.75 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 55c | 727.95$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.95 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 420$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 420$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88aa…2f5ebacked Over | 46c | 350$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 343.26$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.77 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Under | 52c | 299.97$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.99 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 45c | 227.85$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.37 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 54c | 192.61$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.6 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 55c | 188.29$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.73 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 42c | 157.36$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b0…b4d1backed Under | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 44c | 142.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 136.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 17c | 107.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 46c | 99.57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 45c | 74.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…effbbacked Over | 45c | 74.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 43c | 73.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 49c | 67.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 61.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 47.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 52c | 40.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…3a77backed Under | 40c | 34.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 46c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 50c | 33.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 44c | 33.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 47c | 30.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…7b57backed Over | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e99…2229backed Under | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.