MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d1c813081d1a156504d8c904753e3ffcbd8a036a48ef9cead2a50b8f6088e9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa77…15a5backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 5,292$2,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,381.34 | 232 | 55.6%129 W · 103 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Detroit Tigers | 45c | 3,271$1,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.79 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Detroit Tigers | 45c | 1,163$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.85 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Detroit Tigers | 60c | 1,106$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.52 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 469.98$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.78 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Detroit Tigers | 74c | 420$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.8 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 283.53$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.55 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Detroit Tigers | 48c | 218.17$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.93 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Detroit Tigers | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.62 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 126.91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 121.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 72.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Detroit Tigers | 46c | 71.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca78…fe5dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 28c | 63.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…c3b7backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 54.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Detroit Tigers | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 44.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 34.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed Detroit Tigers | 74c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 94 | 73.4%69 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Detroit Tigers | 51c | 23.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.